The Characterization of Strictly Proper Scoring Rules in Decision Making.
CALIFORNIA UNIV BERKELEY OPERATIONS RESEARCH CENTER
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A strictly proper scoring rule or admissible probability measurement procedure APMPis a mathematical device that allows a decision-maker to score probabilistic forecasts made by experts once the outcome is known. The expected score, as seen by the forecaster, should be maximized when the forecaster states his true beliefs so that he will be encouraged to do so. Applications to subjective probability assessment will be given. Author
- Statistics and Probability