Accession Number:

ADA110209

Title:

The Characterization of Strictly Proper Scoring Rules in Decision Making.

Descriptive Note:

Research rept.,

Corporate Author:

CALIFORNIA UNIV BERKELEY OPERATIONS RESEARCH CENTER

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1981-10-01

Pagination or Media Count:

23.0

Abstract:

A strictly proper scoring rule or admissible probability measurement procedure APMPis a mathematical device that allows a decision-maker to score probabilistic forecasts made by experts once the outcome is known. The expected score, as seen by the forecaster, should be maximized when the forecaster states his true beliefs so that he will be encouraged to do so. Applications to subjective probability assessment will be given. Author

Subject Categories:

  • Statistics and Probability

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE