The Third World Arms Market in the 1980's: Implications for U. S. Policy.
Final rept. 1980-1981,
NAVAL ACADEMY ANNAPOLIS MD
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This paper analyzes the demand and supply sides of the Third World arms market. The relationship between arms imports and six economic variables is studied, with emphasis on the use of economic variables to forecast arms demand. Arms imports are found to be systematically related to economic variables in a number of the countries studied. Arms demand is significantly correlated with GNP in thirty of the forty countries. Based upon this correlation, forecasts of arms demand are made using estimates of future GNP levels. These estimates show that Africa and the Middle East will be the largest arms demanding regions in the next decade. On the supply side, U.S. market share and the share of major supplying nations to the Third World are analyzed. During the period 1965 to 1978, U.S. share is found to have declined significantly, particularly in Africa and Latin America. Soviet and European shares have increased in most regions. Market share trends combined with demand projections indicate that U.S. policy toward Africa and Latin America will be of importance in the future.
- Economics and Cost Analysis
- Government and Political Science