Accession Number:

ADA109335

Title:

Forecasting Intense Tropical Cyclones Using 700-mb Equivalent Potential Temperature and Central Sea-Level Pressure

Descriptive Note:

Technical note

Corporate Author:

NAVAL OCEANOGRAPHY COMMAND CENTER/JOINTTYPHOON WARNING CENTER FPO SAN FRANCISCO 96630

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1981-08-01

Pagination or Media Count:

15.0

Abstract:

Sikora 1976, et al., suggests that the equivalent potential temperature at 700 mb in a developing tropical cyclone is an excellent parameter to measure the total thermodynamic energy of the tropical cyclone at a particular time. He further suggests that abnormally high values of equivalent potential temperature or 370 K can herald a period of subsequent explosive deepening. This note expands on that idea to propose a technique for forecasting the development of intense tropical cyclones minimum sea-level pressure 925 mb based on the relationship of the total thermodynamic field, as measured by the tropical cyclones central 700-mb equivalent potential temperature, and the kinematic field, as measured by the tropical cyclones central sea-level pressure. One hundred seven tropical cyclones which occurred in the north Western Pacific and north Central Pacific Ocean were evaluated using 700-mb temperature, 700-mb dewpoint and sea-level pressure data which were available from past Annual Typhoon Reports 1975-1980. These data were used to develop a forecast technique whereby the tropical cyclone forecaster may anticipate significant development in a tropical cyclone by monitoring the central sea- level pressure and 700-mb equivalent potential temperature provided by aircraft reconnaissance. Author

Subject Categories:

  • Atmospheric Physics
  • Meteorology
  • Thermodynamics

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE