Real-Time Forecasting of Echo-Centroid Motion.
AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH
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A program for real-time forecasting of echo-centroid motions has been developed. The key to this development is an algorithm for correlating previous with current storm-centroid positions. The program was tested operationally during the 1978 Joint Doppler Operational Project JDOP conducted at the National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, Oklahoma by the Air Force Geophysics Laboratory, the National Severe Storms Laboratory and the Federal Aviation Administration. Program output was evaluated in both real time and during post analysis. The sensitivity of the program to the reflectivity threshold and correlation parameter was also examined. Three different storm days were used during post analysis to obtain quantitative results concerning forecast accuracy. Results of JDOP 1978 show that this approach to echo-centroid forecasting is effective in providing forecasters with a significant and timely assessment of storm-centroid movement in an easily usable format. An examination of storm tracks and forecasts reveals a mean forecast position error of about 10 km for the three storms analyzed. However, for more severe storms, the forecast error is smaller.
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