Tropical Cylcone Intensity Change - A Quantitative Forecasting Scheme.
AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH
Pagination or Media Count:
Tropical cyclone intensity change is investigated by comparing tropical cyclone systems which intensify to those which do not. The basis of the intensity change problem was to investigate the effects of baroclinic interaction on the poleward side of cyclone systems. Therefore, cyclones found in the Gulf of Mexico during the period 1957-1977 were examined primarily because of the abundance of data on the north side of these systems. When common meteorological differences could not be found by examination of the weather charts, a rawinsonde composite analysis was performed to investigate mean differences between the two systems. The results obtained were significant. Very large differences were found on the northern side of the cyclone particularly in the 200 mb height field, the 850 mb temperature field, the 200 mb zonal wind and the vertical shears of the zonal wind. The individual cyclones which made up the composite study were examined for these same parameters and the results obtained were also significant.