An Econometric Model of Navy Enlistment Behavior.
NAVY PERSONNEL RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CENTER SAN DIEGO CA
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Econometric models of enlistment behavior provide policy-makers with techniques to forecast high quality enlistments to the Navy under alternative scenarios. However, due to the correlations between several of the variables in particular, the concomitant determination of recruiter allocation, advertising expenditures, and goals, the parameter estimates of particular variables are unreliable. Hence, regression models such as the one presented here are unlikely to yield reliable estimates of the effects of policy changes that are outside the range of the historical data. However, for utility as a forecasting device, the model presented in this report has been shown to be reasonably accurate. Forecasts from the EPSUM modal have been installed in the Navys Structured Accession Planning System STRAP, and are being used to estimate the supply constraint employed in enlisted manpower programming. The model should also be considered for use by Navy planners in other applications requiring accurate forecasts of future Navy enlistments.
- Personnel Management and Labor Relations