Accession Number:

ADA099722

Title:

Coherent Assessment of Subjective Probability

Descriptive Note:

Research rept.

Corporate Author:

CALIFORNIA UNIV BERKELEY OPERATIONS RESEARCH CENTER

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1981-03-01

Pagination or Media Count:

51.0

Abstract:

This report discusses the role of coherence considerations in the definition and measurement of subjective probability. A general version of De Finettis coherence theorem--that either a set of betting probabilities obeys the laws of probability or else a sure win is possible for the better--is proved, using a variant of Farkas Lemma. This theorem provides the basis for several admissibility theorems for scoring-rule probabilities, under a generalization of scoring rules suggested by Lindley. Linear programming methods for identifying and reconciling incoherence are discussed, and a comparison is made with Bayesian reconciliation methods.

Subject Categories:

  • Statistics and Probability

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE