Accession Number:

ADA099504

Title:

The Simulation Heuristic.

Descriptive Note:

Technical rept. Jan 80-Apr 81,

Corporate Author:

STANFORD UNIV CA DEPT OF PSYCHOLOGY

Personal Author(s):

• Kahneman,Daniel
• Tversky,Amos

Report Date:

1981-05-15

Pagination or Media Count:

23.0

Abstract:

The mental processes by which people construct scenarios, or examples, resemble the running of the simulation model. Mental simulation appears to be used to make predictions, assess probabilities and evaluate casual statements. A particular form of simulation, which concerns the mental undoing of certain events, plays an important role in the analysis of regret and close calls. Two rules of mental undoing are proposed. According to the downhill rule, people undo events by removing surprising or unexpected occurrences. According to the focus rule, people manipulate the entities on which they focus. The implications of the rules of undoing and mental simulation to the evaluation of scenarios are discussed. Author

Descriptors:

• *SIMULATION
• REASONING
• HEURISTIC METHODS
• MENTAL ABILITY

Subject Categories:

• Psychology

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE