Accession Number:

ADA099501

Title:

Evidential Impact of Base Rates

Descriptive Note:

Technical rept. Jan 1980-Apr 1981

Corporate Author:

STANFORD UNIV CA DEPT OF PSYCHOLOGY

Personal Author(s):

• Tversky, Amos
• Kahneman, Daniel

Report Date:

1981-05-15

Pagination or Media Count:

29.0

Abstract:

Research on intuitive judgment shows that base rate data are often neglected or underweighted in individual predictions. Some evidential variables that control the impact of base rate information are reviewed. It is shown that casual base rates affect judgments while incidental base rates of equal diagnostic import are commonly superseded by more specific evidence. The links between the base rate problem and the question of internal versus external attributions of behavior in social psychology are discussed.

Descriptors:

• *JUDGEMENT(PSYCHOLOGY)
• CONTROL
• INFORMATION PROCESSING
• PREDICTIONS
• SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY
• VARIABLES

Subject Categories:

• Psychology

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE