Evidential Impact of Base Rates
Technical rept. Jan 1980-Apr 1981
STANFORD UNIV CA DEPT OF PSYCHOLOGY
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Research on intuitive judgment shows that base rate data are often neglected or underweighted in individual predictions. Some evidential variables that control the impact of base rate information are reviewed. It is shown that casual base rates affect judgments while incidental base rates of equal diagnostic import are commonly superseded by more specific evidence. The links between the base rate problem and the question of internal versus external attributions of behavior in social psychology are discussed.