A Cross-Sectional Model of Annual Interregional Migration and Employment Growth: Intertemporal Evidence of Structural Change, 1958-1975.
CENTER FOR NAVAL ANALYSES ALEXANDRIA VA INST OF NAVAL STUDIES
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The empirical literature on interregional migration, particularly that concerned with migration within the United States, is almost exclusively focused on cross-sectional studies. The reason for this lack of attention of time-series analyses is that until recently appropriate time series data on migration within the U.S. were simply nonexistent. In the present study we use recently developed annual data on migration, employment, and earnings for 171 regions and for 18 years to examine changes in the structure of a model of annual interregional migration and employment change. The model developed in this study is set up in such a way as to yield insight into an elusive question in migration analysis, namely, how many additional jobs does one more employed net migrant mean to a region A subsidiary question is how many incremental jobs are required to attract one more net migrant. We show that the answers to these questions vary from year to year, and they also vary by type of region. In addition to considering the interrelationships between migration and employment change, we also consider those between migration and average earnings change. Our study actually yields estimates of the impacts that an additional migrant has on average annual earnings within a region.
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