Accession Number:

ADA098153

Title:

Estimates of Peacetime Soviet Naval Intentions: An Assessment of Methods

Descriptive Note:

Technical rept.

Corporate Author:

MATHTECH INC BETHESDA MD

Personal Author(s):

• Stech, Frank J.

Report Date:

1981-03-01

Pagination or Media Count:

221.0

Abstract:

The process of intention estimation was examined to determine what is required, how it is done, the nature of the problems, and the possible solutions. Three general approaches to intention estimation were assessed control, sagacity, and acumen. Intelligence analysts largely rely upon the latter two. The requirements for sagacity and acumen were described. Estimates of peacetime Soviet naval intentions were evaluated in terms of these requirements and also specificity, complexity, and logic. Conflicts between estimates on nine major issues were reviewed. To investigate prediction of naval intentions through sagacity, the estimation process was divided into seven related steps perceiving data assigning weights to data characterizing data assessing covariations assessing causes and effects prediction and forming, maintaining, and changing theories. Each of these steps was evaluated in terms of cognitive and information processing characteristics. Estimates by naval analysts were examined to determine how these were affected by human limits of information processing and problem-solving. Intention estimation through acumen was evaluated by reference to fallacies of historical reasoning and narration.

Descriptors:

• *ESTIMATES
• USSR
• METHODOLOGY
• PEACETIME
• LOGIC
• INFORMATION PROCESSING
• NAVAL INTELLIGENCE
• NAVAL OPERATIONS
• MILITARY FORCES(FOREIGN)
• PREDICTIONS

Subject Categories:

• Psychology
• Military Intelligence

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE