DECISIONS AND DESIGNS INC MCLEAN VA
Pagination or Media Count:
Four methods were used to obtain estimates of the lethality of 20 maladies i.e., the likelihood of dying from them given that an individual is afflicted. Although the estimates elicited by the different methods showed similar rank orderings, the actual values of these lethality rates varied greatly, from consistent overestimation of the true rate to consistent underestimation. No method proved initially to be demonstrably more accurate than the others. Aside from their practical implications, regarding the most effective way to inform people about such life-and-death issues, these results offer some hints as to the ways that such knowledge is stored and integrated in memory.
- Sociology and Law