Accession Number:

ADA094669

Title:

Forecasting in Military Affairs. A Soviet View,

Descriptive Note:

Corporate Author:

DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCE WASHINGTON DC

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1975-01-01

Pagination or Media Count:

239.0

Abstract:

The book provides a rather broad review on an international scale of recent thinking on the subject of scientific planning, forecasting, and decisionmaking as it relates to the military. The scientific approach to these matters is observed to be highly essential in an age in which scientific and technical development gives rise to rapid changes in weapons and techniques. The results of the use of nuclear weapons are likely to be such as to deny decisionmakers the luxury approach to their task. Scientific forecasting is proposed as a means of ensuring the rapid production of soundly based information on which to make proper decisions in military affairs. It is not put forth as a substitute for the thinking of talented and experienced military experts but as a means for them to achieve their decisions in a more timely and scientific manner. The authors employ a mathematical-statistical approach in arriving at their hypotehtical forecasts, and, particulary because of the numerous examples of forecasting situations to which these techniques are applied, those involved or interested in the activity should be able to confirm their understanding of the methods of arrival at the various conclusions.

Subject Categories:

  • Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE