Accession Number:

ADA094448

Title:

Projecting the Future for Situation Assessment and Planning: A Cognitive Analysis.

Descriptive Note:

Interim rept.,

Corporate Author:

RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CA

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1980-11-01

Pagination or Media Count:

48.0

Abstract:

Situation assessment and planning rely heavily on the decisionmakers ability to project future conditions in the environment and the impact of tentative planned actions on those conditions. This note presents a cognitive analysis of the future projection process. It identifies three projection strategies-retrieval from experience, formal analysis, and mental simulation--and characterizes their strengths and weaknesses. It also discusses the impact of three general cognitive factors--operation at different levels of abstraction, motivational factors, and attribution problems--on the future projection process. Based on this analysis, the note proposes a cognitive technology for developing and training effective future projection processes. Author

Subject Categories:

  • Psychology
  • Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE