Projecting the Future for Situation Assessment and Planning: A Cognitive Analysis.
RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CA
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Situation assessment and planning rely heavily on the decisionmakers ability to project future conditions in the environment and the impact of tentative planned actions on those conditions. This note presents a cognitive analysis of the future projection process. It identifies three projection strategies-retrieval from experience, formal analysis, and mental simulation--and characterizes their strengths and weaknesses. It also discusses the impact of three general cognitive factors--operation at different levels of abstraction, motivational factors, and attribution problems--on the future projection process. Based on this analysis, the note proposes a cognitive technology for developing and training effective future projection processes. Author
- Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics