Accession Number:

ADA093969

Title:

Probabilistic Estimates with Limited Data.

Descriptive Note:

Final rept.,

Corporate Author:

ARMY AVIATION RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT COMMAND ST LOUIS MO

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1980-11-01

Pagination or Media Count:

43.0

Abstract:

Decision makers require and need more than a point estimate of the cost and schedule for new or on-going programs. Much has been written about how to quantify program risks based upon historical data. However, estimates for new systems frequently depend upon expert opinion from a few knowledgeable persons because an applicable historical data base is not available. The method proposed in this report utilizes a PERT type network, beta distribution parameters for expert opinion inputs, and convolution of activity distributions by simulation. Author

Subject Categories:

  • Statistics and Probability

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE