Probabilistic Estimates with Limited Data.
ARMY AVIATION RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT COMMAND ST LOUIS MO
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Decision makers require and need more than a point estimate of the cost and schedule for new or on-going programs. Much has been written about how to quantify program risks based upon historical data. However, estimates for new systems frequently depend upon expert opinion from a few knowledgeable persons because an applicable historical data base is not available. The method proposed in this report utilizes a PERT type network, beta distribution parameters for expert opinion inputs, and convolution of activity distributions by simulation. Author
- Statistics and Probability