Estimation of Retention Rates of P-Coded Naval Officers Conditioned on Their Year of Graduation and Subspecialty Code.
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
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This thesis analyzes retention behavior of P-coded Naval officers and derives a model to estimate retention rates for this group of officers conditioned on their respective year of graduation and the Subspecialty code obtained following completion of postgraduate education. The model is based on Bayes estimation technique. The estimates resulting from applying the model to the data obtained by observing the behavior of 3,981 naval officers who were graduated between 1970 and 1975 and who obtained one of 41 selected Subspecialty-codes are analyzed with respect to common trends and differences in the behavior as well as with respect to the usefulness of the Bayes estimation technique underlying the model. It is found that the model yields reliable estimates of the retention rates that can provide a meaningful substitute for actually observed rates especially within prediction models. The author finally recommends an approach that extends his model into a prediction model for the retention rates of P-coded naval officers. Author
- Statistics and Probability