# Accession Number:

## ADA093196

# Title:

## The Rank Input Method and Probability Variation Guides.

# Descriptive Note:

## Technical note,

# Corporate Author:

## AIR FORCE ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNICAL APPLICATIONS CENTER SCOTT AFB IL

# Personal Author(s):

# Report Date:

## 1980-07-01

# Pagination or Media Count:

## 13.0

# Abstract:

The rank input method allows a forecasters subjective estimate to be quantified into a probability forecast. The forecasters estimate can be a rank input, a probability of a single category, or a categorical forecast. With the rank input the forecaster ranks the synoptic situation--very bad to very good-- in relation to the element to be forecast, e.g., surface visibility. The transnormalized regression probability model is then used to calculate the probability of the specific event. Probability of a single category can be converted to probabilities for one or more different categories. A categorical forecast can be converted to probability forecasts. A validation during REFORGER 78 concluded that the method shows promise and that forecasters were able to produce a large number of probability forecasts with a few simple rankings of the synoptic situation. Probability variation guides are tables giving forecast probability values for various inputs. Plotted on a simple graph, all values for a given skill and climatology fall along a single curve in probability space. These curves make certain decision analysis theorems much simpler in form.

# Descriptors:

# Subject Categories:

- Meteorology
- Statistics and Probability