The Rank Input Method and Probability Variation Guides.
AIR FORCE ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNICAL APPLICATIONS CENTER SCOTT AFB IL
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The rank input method allows a forecasters subjective estimate to be quantified into a probability forecast. The forecasters estimate can be a rank input, a probability of a single category, or a categorical forecast. With the rank input the forecaster ranks the synoptic situation--very bad to very good-- in relation to the element to be forecast, e.g., surface visibility. The transnormalized regression probability model is then used to calculate the probability of the specific event. Probability of a single category can be converted to probabilities for one or more different categories. A categorical forecast can be converted to probability forecasts. A validation during REFORGER 78 concluded that the method shows promise and that forecasters were able to produce a large number of probability forecasts with a few simple rankings of the synoptic situation. Probability variation guides are tables giving forecast probability values for various inputs. Plotted on a simple graph, all values for a given skill and climatology fall along a single curve in probability space. These curves make certain decision analysis theorems much simpler in form.
- Statistics and Probability