The Study of Production Leadtime Forecasting Models.
WRIGHT STATE UNIV DAYTON OH COLL OF BUSINESS AND ADMINISTRATION
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Production leadtime PLT has experienced great fluctuations over the last few years. This can have a great effect upon the Inventory System of the Air Force. Presently the Air Force uses a forecasting model which assumes that PLT in the next time period is equal to PLT in the last time period. In order to improve upon this method, this study investigated both the use of ARMA and Smoothing Models for the prediction of PLT. The ARMA Model was eliminated as an effective prediction model for PLT. This was because the average number of data points was well below the minimum needed to make good forecasts using ARMA. An investigation of various smoothing models suggests that a significant improvement in forecasting can be achieved by using these models instead of the present Air Force Model. Author
- Operations Research