Air Force Personnel Availability Analysis: A Description of the Personnel Availability Model (PAM).
DYNAMICS RESEARCH CORP WILMINGTON MASS
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This is the first of three technical reports describing a methodology for projecting the future availability of Air Force personnel and analyzing the potential impacts of personnel policy changes. Developed within the Air Force Human Resources Laboratorys Project 1959, Advanced System for the Human Resources Support of Weapon System Development, the methodology will provide the Air Force with an increased capability for considering the human resources requirements of weapon systems in terms of the future availability of personnel needed to maintain and operate the systems, and the factors which determine personnel availability. The report documents the development of a key element of that methodology-a computerized Personnel Availability Model PAM and its associated data bank. Report AFHRL-TR-79-67 describes application techniques, and report AFHRL-TR-79-68 provides a program description which includes an applied PAM analysis of Air Force personnel. The PAM represents career transition activity within the Air Force by a series of Markov processes, each depicting a subpopulation of airmen with states defined by year of service and paygrade. State transition probabilities are calculated on the basis of actual transition activity data contained in the Uniform Airman Record UAR. Subpopulations may be defined on an a priori basis such as by Air Force Specialty Code AFSC designation, or analytically established by applying a discrete dependent variable regression analysis technique called Logit Analysis.
- Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies
- Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics