Multiple Model Demand Forecasting Compared to Air Force Logistics Command D062 Performance.
AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS
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The purpose of this study was to determine if a multiple model forecasting technique could forecast demand more accurately than the model currently used in the Air Force Logistics Command D062 System for expendable non-recoverable items. Simulated and actual data were used to check the results. The methods utilized in the multiple model technique were an eight-term moving average, a four-term moving average, exponential smoothing, adaptive smoothing, a least squares fit and a ratio of change between years method. Results were compared in terms of mean absolute deviation adjusted to show percentage change in accuracy compared to the D062. The statistical test used for comparison was the t-test for matched pairs. This test indicated approximately a seventeen percent improvement in accuracy using either simulated or real data. Author
- Administration and Management
- Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies