An Assessment of the Influence of Emerging Social and Economic Trends on the People and Management of the Coast Guard. Volume II.
Final rept. Sep 78-Dec 79,
FORECASTING INTERNATIONAL LTD ARLINGTON VA
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The objective of this project is to explore the impacts of the emerging social and economic trends and events that are most likely to affect the people and management of the United States Coast Guard during the time period 1979 to 2004. The study utilizes two computerized models, KSIM and Cross-Impact, to develop projections of fifteen representative trends and 22 events. Cross-relevance and cross-support analyses are then utilized to assess the impact of these forecasts on critical components of the four major Coast Guard resource management areas manpower, funds, material and information. The critical elements represent those points at which a change in the external environment or an internal policy, procedure or system could alter the resource flow pattern. Areas appropriate for policy action, either to take advantage of an opportunity or to address a potential problem, are identified and the appropriate action option formulated for each. Author
- Administration and Management