Concepts Evaluation Model (CEM) Design Specifications for: (1) Attrition and Calibration (2) Fixed Fortified Defense.
Final rept. Sep-Dec 79,
GENERAL RESEARCH CORP MCLEAN VA OPERATIONS ANALYSIS GROUP
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The Concepts Evaluation Model CEM is a theater combat simulation model which resolves combat at the Blue brigade and Red division level. As with all combat simulation models, input derivation for attrition and maneuver data is a major task. The basic structure of the CEM inputs include 1 the weapon characteristics for the battle engagements and 2 the resources available to each opposing side Red and Blue. One of the basic ingredients in the weapon characteristics description, as used in the CEM, is the firepower potential. This is a number value derived for each weapon type, for each engagement type, as a function of the quantity of expected rounds expended, the lethal area of a round, a correlation coefficient which equates lethal area to the probability of kill and a battle intensity factor. These firepower values are used in the CEM to compute the combat attritions and FEBA movements. This report documents a proposed attrition and calibration process intended to offset these present shortcomings. This new attrition process is centered around an algorithm developed at the US Army Concepts Analysis Agency by Dr. Alan Johnsrud. Its principal feature is its use of battle attrition, as generated by a high-resolution model, to calculate attrition for differing combat situations.
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