A Procedure for Monitoring International Interaction.
UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES
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This paper is the first in a series of reports to be issued by the World EventInteraction Survey summarizing the status of the development of procedures to monitor international interaction on a monthly basis. The WEIS project has issued detailed analyses of its data on a six month basis. These biannual reports provide summarizations of the interaction for each of the 160 political entities included in the WEIS project data, and concentrate on the identification of recurring patterns of international behavior present in the international system, and in specific conflict arenas. The new monthly status reports are intended to supplement the reporting procedures initiated in the biannual analyses, which will continue to be issued. One of the major tasks to be undertaken is the development of a computerized monitoring system of international interaction. The plan is to develop a monitoring system of ongoing international interaction, in conjunction with investigations of interaction processes in previous conflict situations and development of analytic techniques and procedures for prediction of interaction outcomes such as time series analysis and probability-based computer simulation models in order to provide the capability to identify, at an early stage, the development of conflict processes in the ongoing stream of interaction data, and to predict the outcome of interaction processes.
- Government and Political Science