Evaluation of a Proposed Modified Log-Gamma Confidence Bound Method for Fleet Missile System Reliability.
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
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A statistical method has been proposed which obtains a lower confidence bound on system reliability. It is a modified log-gamma procedure developed to measure fleet missile system reliability. Monte Carlo simulations were performed to evaluate its accuracy as an estimate for system reliability. Five hundred simulations were run for each of twelve cases examined at 80 and 90 confidence levels. Additional simulations were performed with minor modifications to the proposed log-gamma method. A comparison was made between the two versions on their accuracy for estimating the lower confidence bound on system reliability. The reliability equations were applied to a hypothetical fleet missile system configuration and analyzed for changes in test sample sizes. Component reliabilities and weighting factors. The proposed procedure was determined to be significantly inaccurate for small and large amounts of accumulated test data on missile components. It also has the distracting defect that larger lower confidence bounds are obtained from data sets with one failure than those obtained from data sets with zero failures.
- Numerical Mathematics
- Surface-Launched Guided Missiles