Accession Number:

ADA076190

Title:

Probability Weather Forecasts: For the Army.

Descriptive Note:

Final rept.,

Corporate Author:

ARMY COMMAND AND GENERAL STAFF COLL FORT LEAVENWORTH KS

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1979-06-08

Pagination or Media Count:

116.0

Abstract:

The United States Army presently receives weather forecasts expressed in categorical terms. However, this forecast form limits the useful information that can be communicated to the decision maker. This study investigates the utility of replacing categorical forecasts with probability forecasts in order to enhance decision making by Army commanders. To this end, the advantages and limitations of probability forecasts are reviewed. The principal conclusion of this study is that Army commanders would benefit from receiving probability weather forecasts. Finally, several recommendations for smoothing the conversion are given and a briefing that a Staff Weather Officer can use as a basis for showing an Army commander the utility of probability forecasts is provided. Author

Subject Categories:

  • Meteorology
  • Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE