Development and Evaluation of Cross-Impact Analysis as a Crisis Decision-Aid.
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
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This thesis reviews the decision-making dilemma caused by information uncertainty and ambiguity produced during crisis situations. Several cross-impact analysis techniques are reviewed and evaluate as possible crisis decision-aids. Cross-event analysis is selected and extended for demonstration in a hypothetical crisis situation involving South Asia. The selected techniques is operationalized and employed in a controlled environment to assess policy response options to the hypothetical crisis. The thesis then assesses the techniques conceptual limitations, and evaluates its utility as a potential crisis decision-aiding methodology. Author
- Government and Political Science