Refinement of a Statistical Diagnostic Model of Marine Fog using FNWC Model Output Parameters.
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
Pagination or Media Count:
They study represents a continuation of the development of a model output statistics scheme to specify marine fog over the open ocean and in coastal waters. Thirty-seven direct and derived Fleet Numerical Weather Central model output parameters, monthly climatological fog frequencies, combinations of the aforementioned parameters i.e. interactive parameters and a persistence parameter are used as predictors in a stepwise multiple linear regression approach to estimate a predictand defined as marine fog probability. The predictand is categorized in two ways, in one case FOGCAT 1 as smoothed probabilities for 0 to 100 as a function of present weather, past weather, visibility and low cloud type and, in another case FOGCAT 2 as a limited number of discrete probabilities to include 0 and 100 derived form presetn weather, past weather and visibility only. This study derives diagnostic regression equations only using as a dependent data sample over 24,000 surface synoptic ship observations at 0000 GMT for June through August 1976 and 1977. The predictor parameters contributing most significantly to the variance are sensible and evaporative heat fluxes, monthly climatologial fog frequencies, and meridional wind speed.