Accession Number:

ADA071459

Title:

A Monte Carlo Solution to the Problem of Survivability of Ammunition Stores

Descriptive Note:

Final rept.

Corporate Author:

ARMY BALLISTIC RESEARCH LAB ABERDEEN PROVING GROUND MD

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1979-05-01

Pagination or Media Count:

54.0

Abstract:

The problem of survivability of ammunition stores given a hit is studied. This study models the propagation of the detonation through an ammunition store in a stochastic manner using the structure of percolation theory. This problem of propagation of detonation is found to fit into the model of a bond percolation problem. Our model predicts the average number of rounds lost per encounter, the standard deviation, and the probability distribution of reaction cluster size, as well as the cummulative probabilities, as functions of the inter-round interaction probability p. Our study shows that survivability requires that p be less than a critical probability Pc. We have also proposed a more general definition of the critical probability Pc.

Subject Categories:

  • Ammunition and Explosives
  • Explosions

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE