Determining Government Disbursements from Normalized Spending Patterns.
AIR FORCE ACADEMY COLO
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These models are the culmination of an attempt to model the disbursement and reimbursement process in the Air Force. Data from every major treasury code category were gathered and investigated. It was determined that total yearly disbursements and reimbursements in each category possessed so many random effects that accurate modelling was not possible. However, when the data was separated into fiscal year monies in each treasury code category, the ability to model the data changed completely. The fiscal year disbursement and reimbursement data showed that, in each case, monies were expended in an S-shaped, cumulative expenditure pattern over the spendout period. Forecasts from these separate fiscal year curves were then combined to establish the forecast outlays in each treasury code category by month. To fit the S-shaped fiscal curves, a method of splitting the curve at its inflection point and fitting both halves separately was developed. The end result was the construction of successful models for forecasting monthly outlays in every treasury code category of Air Force spending. Author
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