Analysis of the Historical Relationship Between Current Navy RDT and E and Future Investment in Procurement
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
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This thesis attempts to analyze the historical relationship between the Navys investment in current RDTE and future investment in procurement. Using data from fiscal years 1962 through 1979 and single equation econometric forecasting techniques, linear models predicting procurement one to four years in advance based on current RDTE are developed. From time-series data, with the models adjusted for serial correlation of the error terms, ex post forecasts and confidence interval estimations are used to evaluate the extent and usefulness of the predictive relationships discovered. Eight separate models are developed, and analysis of results indicates the existence of a predictive relationship. However, there are also indications that the basic relationship may have changed during the period under study. The relative inaccuracy of forecasting methods when earlier data are ignored makes the usefulness of these procedures to those who shape future navy budgets difficult to determine.
- Administration and Management