The Performance-Potential Dilemma. Does It Exist?
AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING
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This research was conducted to examine Air Force officers perceptions both individually and in groups, of what is involved in a rating of potential. In order to determine these perceptions, a judgment modeling, or policy capturing research approach was used. A decision-making exercise was administered to 381 active duty USAF officers attending Squadron Officers school, Air Command and Staff College, and Air War College. The results of the research indicate that Air Force officers do not view the OER rating as being solely determined by past performance, although the performance factor was weighted most heavily. Analysis indicated that officers used different judgment policies when considering good and bad OER ratings, and that they were generally internally consistent in their judgment policies. Additionally, several different analyses indicated that the Air War College students used judgment policies that were significantly different than the other groups specifically, AWC students generally placed greater emphasis on potential than the other PME groups. Furthermore, the AWC group displayed both the lowest internal judgment consistency and the lowest group R2 values an indication of the degree of decision-making homogeneity within the group.