Modified Twenty-Four Hour Extrapolation as a Forecast Technique for the Movement of Tropical Cyclones.
Technical note 1973-1975,
FLEET WEATHER CENTRAL/JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER FPO SAN FRANCISCO 96630
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The Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Guam JTWC uses several objective techniques for forecasting the movement of tropical cyclones. Twelve-hour extrapolation XTRP and the TYFN75 analog program are the most successful of these techniques. The input parameters for both techniques include the past 12-hr storm position. It is felt that a subjective 24-hr extrapolation technique XT24 based on reconnaissance positions is more realistic these data are real-time whereas the warning positions are extrapolated from the reconnaissance positions and a 24-hr period tends to smooth out erratic short-term movements in the storm track. An operational evaluation of XT24 was conducted during the 1975 typhoon season. These results and recommendations for future use are discussed. Author
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