Accession Number:

ADA065896

Title:

Modified Twenty-Four Hour Extrapolation as a Forecast Technique for the Movement of Tropical Cyclones.

Descriptive Note:

Technical note 1973-1975,

Corporate Author:

FLEET WEATHER CENTRAL/JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER FPO SAN FRANCISCO 96630

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1976-04-01

Pagination or Media Count:

18.0

Abstract:

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Guam JTWC uses several objective techniques for forecasting the movement of tropical cyclones. Twelve-hour extrapolation XTRP and the TYFN75 analog program are the most successful of these techniques. The input parameters for both techniques include the past 12-hr storm position. It is felt that a subjective 24-hr extrapolation technique XT24 based on reconnaissance positions is more realistic these data are real-time whereas the warning positions are extrapolated from the reconnaissance positions and a 24-hr period tends to smooth out erratic short-term movements in the storm track. An operational evaluation of XT24 was conducted during the 1975 typhoon season. These results and recommendations for future use are discussed. Author

Subject Categories:

  • Meteorology
  • Computer Programming and Software

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE