A Technique for Using Synoptic Analogs to Predict the Development of Tropical Depressions into North Atlantic Hurricanes.
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This study presents a method for using the output of the U.S. Navy long range analog forecast model to predict the development of tropical depressions in the North Atlantic Ocean into tropical storms or hurricanes. The technique is applied to North Atlantic tropical depressions which formed in the period from 1974 through 1977. Sample cases, statistical analyses of results, and verification of the technique are presented. Results show that the method successfully predicts tropical depression development. Recommendations are made to streamline and improve the technique. Author