A Comparison of the Sensitivity of Two Similar Objective Forecast Techniques.
FLEET WEATHER CENTRAL/JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER FPO SAN FRANCISCO 96630
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A number of computerized objective forecast techniques are available to assist the JTWC in the preparation of warnings. Of concern is the sensitivity of these techniques to errors in the warning and history positions. Two techniques, TSGLOB and TYMOD, were selected for testing. Both techniques utilize the 24-hour global band upper air progs GBUA provided by FLENUMWEACEN Monterey, California. After selectng a GBUA field and running control forecasts for both techniques, errors of six and 12nm were introduced into the warning and history position, both individually and collectively. The results showed that TYMOD was less sensitive to positioning errors than TSGLOB. In addition, the TYMOD errors tended to reach a maximum about 48 hours and then decrease in magnitude thereafter. Author