Behavioral Aspects of Fallout Shelter Stay.
Interim rept. 16 Nov 77-26 May 78,
BDM CORP MCLEAN VA
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A major assumption underlying the calculation of casualties from a nuclear exchange concerns the time civilian populations can be expected to stay in fallout shelters. Presently, two general guidelines are used 1 one week of shelter stay followed by two weeks of partial shelter occupancy and, 2 a two day shelter stay followed by three days of partial shelter occupancy. The objective of this program is to explore the nature of these assumptions using behavioral sciences data. Systematic quantitative estimates of shelter stay times can be obtained from an empirical data base. Length of shelter stay is dependent on a variety of variables the most important being degree of preparedness. Generally, post attack behavior will be the range considered normal. The use of quantitative estimates of fallout shelter stay time reduces the variability associated with predicting the human factor in strategic simulations. Author
- Civil Defense