An Evaluation of Two Great Lakes Wave Models.
COASTAL ENGINEERING RESEARCH CENTER FORT BELVOIR VA
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Two operational numerical Great Lakes wave models are described in detail and evaluated. One model is a modern spectral wave model developed at the U.S. Army Engineering Waterways Experiment Station WES for hindcasting extreme historic wave conditions in the Great Lakes. The other model is a relatively simple, significant wave model developed at the Techniques Development Laboratory TDL of the National Weather Service for providing predictions to aid local forecasters in Great Lakes areas. Evaluation of the WES model consists of comparing wave hindcasts for nine storms in Lake Erie during fall 1975. Evaluation of the TDL model consists of comparing forecasts during fall 1975 and fall 1976 at the Lake Erie sites and three Lake Michigan sites. When all the data are combined, the WES hindcast significant heights for specific times are generally within 0.5 meter of gage significant heights, but occasional differences of over 1 meter are observed. The WES hindcasts tend to be more accurate for situations where fetches are reasonably well defined than for situations where fetches are poorly defined and highly variable with slight changes in wind direction the differences may be systematic. TDL forecast significant heights have a strong tendency to be higher than gage significant heights, although there may be a reverse tendency during very high wave conditions. TDL forecast significant periods are relatively unbiased but less variable than gage peak spectral periods.
- Hydrology, Limnology and Potamology