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Accession Number:
ADA063721
Title:
A New Methodology for the Modeling of Decision Processes in International Relations.
Descriptive Note:
Military issues research memo.,
Corporate Author:
ARMY WAR COLL STRATEGIC STUDIES INST CARLISLE BARRACKS PA
Report Date:
1978-07-03
Pagination or Media Count:
40.0
Abstract:
In this memorandum, the purpose of the authors is to show why the time is ripe for a new approach which promises to provide the discipline of international relations with a new methodology to be used for modeling international behavior and the policy community with a means for discovering the principles underlying the decision process in other countries. They argue that it is necessary to develop models which will incorporate more of the contextuality impinging upon the decision process if we are to deal effectively with either basic or applied analysis of foreign policy decision making. One of the means of doing this is the use of production systems. The authors assert that they provide the scientist with enormous investigatory power particularly when linked with extant numerical models. Furthermore, the authors argue that models using production rules can be developed in a manner very similar to more traditional scientific analyses. They can be developed from a detailed structure, fit against data and finally tested against data. The authors present, in the introduction, the general trends in the study of international relations which have led to the need for research efforts of the sort they are proposing. The second section presents a general overview of production rules and the elicitation methodology useful in operationalizing the rule. The concluding section outlines the problems and approaches to validation of this form of modeling. Author
Distribution Statement:
APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE
