Aggregation of Uncertainty about Subjective Judgments.
WASHINGTON UNIV SEATTLE DEPT OF PSYCHOLOGY
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Four experiments were conducted to investigate the process by which humans aggregate uncertainty across tasks. The results indicate that the process can best be described as additive. However, the high variability of the data suggests both that the additive model should be regarded as only an approximation and that the process is a complex interaction of problem specific and decision-maker specific variables. As a result, the strategy by which uncertainty is aggregated is variable. Although individuals who use a heuristic are capable of consistantly applying it, those who approached the problem subjectively do not show a stable pattern of responses. The complexity of the process implies that it must be approached with a multidimensional perspective. The major variable clusters of the uncertainty estimation and aggregation process are specified as are their interrelationships. The implications of this research for an extension of MAUT techniques are discussed. Author
- Operations Research