Tests of a Mesoscale Model over Europe and the United States.
Technical rept. 1 Oct 77-22 Sep 78,
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CALIF
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A total of 32 twenty-four-hour forecasts using a six-layer, 60-km mesh model have been run over western Europe and the eastern United States. The forecasts showed considerable skill in forecasting cyclogenesis over the Mediterranean and the U.S. The average 24-hour S1 score for sea-level pressure was 39.1 compared to an average of 45.9 for the FNWC operational model and 73.4 for persistence. The major conclusion from this study is that significant improvements in 24-hour sea-level pressure forecasts were obtained by a model with high horizontal resolution, even though the vertical resolution was coarse and the physics in the model was simple. It appears likely, therefore, that further increases in forecast accuracy are possible by refining the vertical resolution and improving the physics.