Reconciling Incoherent Judgments (RIJ) - Toward Principles of Personal Rationality.
DECISIONS AND DESIGNS INC MCLEAN VA
Pagination or Media Count:
Decision analysis involves constructing models which force logical coherence between a subjects judgments, e.g., between his choice of action and probabilities and utilities. However, it does not specify how he should reconcile any incoherent judgments. There are indefinitely many ways they can be adjusted to be coherent systems of judgment. The authors discuss two approaches for identifying one ideal set of reconciled judgments for a subject, given some or, in the limit, all potential incoherent readings. They both call for higher order judgments bearing on the precision of the subjects original readings. One is a straightforward extension of Bayesian updating with the readings serving as data to update a prior. The other involes minimizing adjustments, taking into account the stability of the readings as probabilistically measured. Author