Accession Number:

ADA058998

Title:

Improving Intuitive Judgments BY Subjective Sensitivity Analysis

Descriptive Note:

Technical rept.

Corporate Author:

DECISIONS AND DESIGNS INC MCLEAN VA

Report Date:

1978-07-01

Pagination or Media Count:

55.0

Abstract:

Previous studies have concluded that when making inferences, people tend to ignore various kinds of normatively important information e.g., samples sizes, base rates. The basis for such conclusions has typically been the similarity of responses across groups presented with widely discrepant values of that information. The experiments reported here convert earlier, between- subject designs to within-subject formats. Each subject made several judgments as one kind of information varied across a range of possible values. When information regarding base rates and predictive validity was varied, roughly two-thirds of the subjects changed their judgments in directions dictated by normative considerations. There were no appreciable shifts in response to changes in sample size. Apparently, people know or can figure out sonewhat more than what they have been given credit for in the past. Author

Subject Categories:

  • Psychology

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE