Accession Number:

ADA058707

Title:

A Comparison of Analytic and Simulation Reliability and Maintainability (R/M) Prediction Methods.

Descriptive Note:

Final rept.,

Corporate Author:

DAVID W TAYLOR NAVAL SHIP RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CENTER BETHESDA MD

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1978-08-01

Pagination or Media Count:

106.0

Abstract:

Two methods for predicting the reliability and maintainability RM of systems are discucussed--a simulation method and an analytic method. Two computer programs SIM3 and GEMJR incorporating these methods and their input and output are described. The simualtion method uses Monte Carlo techniques in predicting reliability. The analytic method incorporates the Poisson failure process to develop stochastic matrices which can be solved using infinite series to give reliability and availability. The advantages and disadvantages of both methods are discussed. System configuration changes and complex missions can be considered more effectively using the simulation method. However, the simulation method does not calculate availability and provides only approximate results. In contrast, the analytic method predicts exact results and can examine such maintenance aspects as repairmen, standbys, and redundancies. Both methods are useful tools depending upon the RM applications. Author

Subject Categories:

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Computer Programming and Software
  • Manufacturing and Industrial Engineering and Control of Production Systems
  • Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE