Accession Number:

ADA058653

Title:

Target Vulnerability and Hardness Uncertainty Analysis

Descriptive Note:

Final rept. 30 Mar 76-31 Jan 77

Corporate Author:

TRW DEFENSE SYSTEMS GROUP REDONDO BEACHCA

Report Date:

1977-01-31

Pagination or Media Count:

93.0

Abstract:

Large uncertainties on target vulnerability and hardness have influenced U.S. strategic targeting and RD planning. The objective of this study was to develop quantitative methods for analyzing uncertainty in target vulnerability and hardness predictions. Methods for target hardness predictions and the analysis of the associated uncertainty given good intelligence, were evaluated for application to two targets, namely, 1 above-ground industrial building and 2 shallow-buried command and control bunker. The procedure for evaluating target hardness uncertainty was started with the formulation of mathematical models of the weapon effects and the target response and failure. Structural responses models for both targets were developed based on classical structural dynamics considerations. However, for the buried bunker, the structural model is more uncertain because of the inadequate data base. Uncertainties on model parameters were characterized and propagated through the analysis using a Taylor-series expansion method, to evaluate the best estimate hardness and the hardness uncertainty as a function of weapon yield. The results were evaluated and compared with the Physical Vulnerability System. Author

Subject Categories:

  • Structural Engineering and Building Technology

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE