Research on the Technology of Inference and Decision
Final rept. 1 Oct 1976-30 Sep 1977
DECISIONS AND DESIGNS INC MCLEAN VA
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This report summarizes twelve months of research on the technology of inference and decision. Theoretical research and experimental work on three major topics elicitation of subjective probabilities, multi-attribute utility theory, and the application of decision technology, is discussed. Experimental work showed that simple averaging of individuals probability judgments to form a group judgment did not differ significantly from behavioral interaction in final quality of the judgments as evaluated by a quadratic scoring rule. Other experimental work indicated that elicitation techniques were of significant importance to the quality of judgments. Response scales were found to affect both the magnitude and veridicality of probabilistic judgment. In the assessment of subjective probability distributions elicitation technique was found to interact with the type of distribution used to generate the data in that biases introduced in subjective probability distributions varied as a function of the uncertain quantity being assessed.
- Administration and Management
- Operations Research