Accession Number:

ADA056920

Title:

Climate Forecast Verification via Multinomial Stochasters,

Descriptive Note:

Corporate Author:

SCRIPPS INSTITUTION OF OCEANOGRAPHY LA JOLLA CALIF

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1977-12-01

Pagination or Media Count:

136.0

Abstract:

The problem of attaching some quantitative measure of skill to forecasts of temperature, precipitation and other physical fields over extensive regions of the atmosphere and hydrosphere is examined. It is suggested that to each forecaster we may assign a competitive stochaster, a device or person that performs the same forecast over the same regions of space and time as the forecaster, but using a specially designed random procedure. This notion is illustrated for the case of a multinomial stochaster, by means of numerical studies of actual temperature and precipitation forecasts over the U.S. mainland for various seasons over the past three years. Specially designed tables and charts show how quantitative judgments of forecaster skills can be made in a variety of ways. Author

Subject Categories:

  • Meteorology
  • Statistics and Probability

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE