Accession Number:

ADA056586

Title:

An Analysis of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Forecast Errors.

Descriptive Note:

Technical rept.,

Corporate Author:

NAVAL ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION RESEARCH FACILITY MONTEREY CALIF

Personal Author(s):

• Jarrell,Jerry D.
• Brand,Samson
• Nicklin,Donald S.

Report Date:

1977-11-01

Pagination or Media Count:

42.0

Abstract:

Western North Pacific tropical cyclone position forecast errors for 10 years 1966-1975 are statistically analyzed. Variations of errors versus a number of parameters are examined. Discriminant analysis techniques are used to isolate categories where forecasts are likely to be above and below the median in west-east and north-south error components. The discriminant analysis was tested on 1976 data and the results are presented. It was confirmed that a small number of readily available parameters such as location, maximum wind and components of motion can, with reasonable effectiveness, classify a tropical cyclone forecast as representing a group with either markedly above or below average errors. The annual variations of forecast errors are also discussed and an attempt is made to explain those variations. Author

Descriptors:

• *WEATHER FORECASTING
• *TROPICAL CYCLONES
• MILITARY OPERATIONS
• DECISION MAKING
• ACCURACY
• METEOROLOGICAL DATA
• ERRORS
• STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
• MARINE METEOROLOGY
• NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN
• TYPHOONS

Subject Categories:

• Meteorology

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE