Projections of the U.S. Population of 18-Year-Old Males in the Post-1993 Period.
NAVY PERSONNEL RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CENTER SAN DIEGO CALIF
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With the advent of the all-volunteer force, it is necessary to estimate the long-term supply of individuals available for military service to determine our ability to meet future manpower requirements. Planners must be able to forecast both the size and composition of manpower supply because of the lead time necessary to take corrective action in areas such as recruitment strategies, training policies, hardware and job design, necessary legislation, etc., whenever there are critical imbalances between projected supply and requirements. The primary manpower pool for the military is comprised of young men 17-21 years old. This report discusses a forecasting methodology based upon asymptotic exponential regression that may be utilized to obtain projections of this population in the post-1993 period. Specifically, a methodology is presented to obtain projections of the 18-year-old male population. Extension to other age groups is straightforward. Projections obtained by this methodology are compared to Bureau of the Census population projections and actual post-period estimates. The methodology is shown to be an interesting alternative to other projection techniques. Author
- Sociology and Law
- Personnel Management and Labor Relations
- Statistics and Probability