Accession Number:

ADA052906

Title:

Forecasting Officer Losses-an Examination of Methods.

Descriptive Note:

Technical rept.,

Corporate Author:

AIR FORCE MILITARY PERSONNEL CENTER RANDOLPH AFB TEX

Personal Author(s):

• Beatty,T. M.

Report Date:

1977-09-01

Pagination or Media Count:

21.0

Abstract:

Air Force Personnel Managers must be able to accurately forecast the force size. This need is explicit in meeting statutory budget limitations. Further officer losses drive accession, training, and promotion, thus the need for accuracy in forecasting losses cannot be over emphasized. To accomplish this objective loss rates have been generated using Ordinary Least Squares OLS stepwise regression. The objective of this paper is to expose the relative efficacies of alternative methods which could be used viz. Maximum Likelihood Estimation MLE and OLS standardized coefficient Beta predictor models. Author

Descriptors:

• *AIR FORCE PERSONNEL
• *MANPOWER
• ATTRITION
• FORECASTING
• LEAST SQUARES METHOD
• STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
• MILITARY FORCE LEVELS
• OFFICER PERSONNEL
• PERSONNEL RETENTION

Subject Categories:

• Personnel Management and Labor Relations

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE