Radio Flare Studies at 4 CM.
Final scientific rept. 1 Jul 75-30 Sep 77,
BOSTON UNIV MASS DEPT OF ASTRONOMY
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This report describes the efforts made under the present contract to observe and analyze the morphology of solar active regions and flare events. The overall four-year effort 1973-1977 was undertaken in the hope of developing a forecasting scheme which would allow the prediction of major flare events based on the behavior of the brightness temperature Ta12 TrTl and the circular polarization PTr-TlTrTl in the hours, or possibly the days, prior to the erruption of such a flare. During the years 1973-1977, we conducted 63 days of observations with the 120 ft. Haystack antenna at a 4 cm wavelength, logging a total of more than 330 hours of solar observations. Primarily because this was a period of solar minimum, the number of cases observed, and especially those pertaining to major flare events, was relatively small. This fact, compounded by the observed diversity in the behavior of active regions before and during flare events, made it impossible to extract from the data any dependable forecasting scheme. It was concluded, therefore, that this goal can be achieved only with a long term project using a dedicated facility which over the period of a solar cycle could obtain a large enough number of events to make any statistical interpretation of the results meaningful. Though the main goal of the project was not realized, our efforts allowed us to gain a better perspective of the magnitude of the task and an understanding of the ways through which the forecasting effort should be approached. Our work produced also several other results, in which we were more successful.
- Numerical Mathematics