Accession Number:

ADA051655

Title:

Estimating Outcomes and Consequences of Interstate Wars.

Descriptive Note:

Final rept. 1 Feb-30 Nov 76,

Corporate Author:

MICHIGAN UNIV ANN ARBOR CENTER FOR POLITICAL STUDIES

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1977-02-01

Pagination or Media Count:

75.0

Abstract:

Past errors in predicting victors and vanquished in international wars are rooted in major defects of available measures of national capabilities. The principal source of difficulties has been the absence of a direct estimation of the efficacy of the political system, for there has been no rigorous way to evaluate the real effectiveness of governments. Techniques for appraising the performance of national economies cannot be applied to the performance of political systems. If one could measure political capacity and combine such an estimate with other data relating social and economic performance, long in use to measure national capabilities, one would be able to estimate with sufficient accuracy the strengths of nations and predict the outcome of any total but non-nuclear war. The four conflicts analyzed in this study are 1 The wars between the Arabs and Israelis. 2 The war between North and South Vietnam, with the assistance of the Soviet Union, the Peoples Republic of China, and the United States. 3 The very brief struggle between India and China in the Himalayas. 4 The Korean war, in which North and South Korea were the combatants of record, but where the major portion of the fighting was done by the United States and the Peoples Republic of China.

Subject Categories:

  • Economics and Cost Analysis
  • Government and Political Science
  • Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE